Greyhounds do not run the same way every time. Thus, there is a much larger stochastic element in greyhound handicapping than in charting horses.

If a handicapper can beat the pari-mutuel favorite 20% or more of the time, he or she is really way ahead of the game. Recall that the favorite only wins 25% to 30% of the races. True, this is a downside in that the variability of outcomes is so great. But the upside should more than make up for it: A surprise finisher can pay off handsomely. Handicapping involves trying to pick the surprise finishers, but within a disciplined and analytical approach that will ensure that the occasional win will cover the losses on other bets, with something left over to spare. Races are run by “grade.”

Each course and each grade is really a separate world for handicapping, and comparisons across those boundaries are seldom reliable. For example, greyhounds do not usually travel between tracks, so that cross-track comparisons are not necessary. But, if a dog has indeed traveled to another track in the same season (a “shipper”), it is usually because it failed to win at the lowest grade at the former track, and may not have what it takes to win at all, unless the competition at the new track is just not as stiff. Some grades will have “tighter” distributions (lower standard deviations) than other grades.

One’s understanding of the animals and the races may make him or her better at handicapping certain grades than others.

The factors in handicapping are much the same as in horse racing, including the prior performance data, the health of the animal and its breeding.

Of the many factors (16 to 18 on which information can be had), the most important, obviously, is speed, though there are many different opinions about how important it is and how it is measured. Speed is like “edge” in gambling – it does not guarantee a win, but it makes it more likely to win than someone with a smaller edge. It is sometimes called “ART” or average race time or “speed rating.”

The past performance lines (or PPL) have race times. Different handicappers use these times differently, mindful that race performances by greyhounds are less consistent than for thoroughbred horses. Fast times for non-winning greyhounds may be explained by a pace set by the fast winner. Slow times may be caused by weather or track conditions, so mechanically taking times off the PPL’s is probably not a good idea.

The “meet best” data can be helpful as establishing an upper limit for a specific animal, but it can be fairly out of date. The recent competitive data are the most reliable. Speed ratings or power ratings are usually not particularly reliable or helpful, and really explain more why the “fan money” goes where it does.

If the objective is to outsmart the public, it is best not to rely too heavily on someone else’s index data, touts or tips. Successful handicappers work on predicting how a race will be run and then go back and compare the outcome to the prognostication. With at least 25 or 30 races in a sample, it may be possible to determine where a person is being relatively more successful in handicapping, and where perhaps too much or too little influence is given to some handicapping factor.

It is useful to handicap all of the greyhounds in a race and then compile the number of wins-places-shows for each of the eight picks. A score of 30% or more on the first pick will out perform the public. Doing this sort of analysis for each of the grades of interest makes it possible to focus on the kind of race that can lead to a positive cash flow. It also helps to identify the combination bets (like the trifecta) that hold the most promise.

Once it seems comfortable to handicap races, it will be important to make hypothetical wagers on another 25 or 30 races, both to confirm the lessons from the previous exercise, and to see how much capital is required to earn how much in profits. If the profit is negative, more adjustments are necessary.

It is often said that the best wager is a trifecta in which a strong runner is chosen for the win, and then all the other reasonably competitive greyhounds are bet to place or show.

A “wheel” bet is to bet on a single greyhound to win and then on all the rest of the field to place or show. This is a $42 bet at the $1 level (21 combinations of 2 greyhounds out of a set of 7, times 2 because of the order). If just two entrants can be ruled out altogether, the cost of the wager is reduced to $20. This is called a partial wheel.

Ruling out winners is almost as important as picking them, as the reduced cost of the bet without a cost in probability of success will greatly increase the wagerer’s edge.

Ruling out “shows” is much harder than at first it appears. Past performances that show slow breakers may indicate a “no show” runner if the competition has past performance data showing faster or earlier breaks.

Overall power numbers and speeds can be useful for handicapping unless the differences are not significant enough to bet on, literally. Shifts in grade can also be telling. First determine whether the race in question is a “high” or “low” race for its grade. If a greyhound is moving up in grade, say from C to B, and this is a “high” B race, odds are the contestant new to the B grade will not show. Greyhounds over 4½ to 5 may have trouble competing with faster, younger racers if the track is fast.

A sloppy track may favor experience over speed.

Starting box position may affect how a race is run.

The inside and far outside positions are thought better than the middle, where there can be a lot of traffic. They are sometimes referred to as “cold boxes.”

Unless the greyhound is a strong closer and the rest of the field has some faders, the “cold boxes” could be the kiss of death for any animal that is not a good breaker.