Interpreting Poker Bets

Almost as important as knowing how to bet is the skill of knowing what to make of the bets advanced by others. One might think, "Well, if I know how to bet, clearly I'll know how to interpret the bets of others." This is not automatic. It would be true if everyone always bet just as you do. But they don't. Sizing up other people, therefore, is the first step in understanding how to take on opponents in poker.

The first question is, of course, what the bet might mean in an honest, competent and clear-thinking world. Does the person really have a high pair? Is this person playing for a "draw hand" (one that has maybe four out of five cards necessary for a flush or a straight) with favorable odds? The details of this consideration involve speculating or intuiting what sort of cards would cause a competent player to say whatever it was that was just said (i.e., bet, call or raise). The second question is often even more important: What are the chances that this player is either bluffing or making a mistake? Put differently, can I rely on what was said, or need I discount it because the player is insincere, incompetent, or self-deceiving? A good player will beat a poor player because the good player understands the following reasons why another person may have bet the way he or she did when the cards would normally call for a different response:

• Bluffing (insincere betting) occurs when a person wants to communicate a stronger hand than is really the case. This may be an attempt to "steal the antes" (when everyone else has essentially confessed to having a weak hand), or it may be an attempt to chase other players away from a larger pot. It is common to use the term "semi-bluff" to refer to situations in which a bet may be considered misleading, but nevertheless warranted. An example is betting to shake out as many players as possible, and then play for a strong hand in a later round (such as a draw to a flush or hoping for a triple in Hold'em or stud).
• Incompetence is a major explainer of bets. Often an inexperienced player will bet a hand that is not worth playing or will just call someone else's bet when a raise would have been appropriate. A seasoned veteran will try to appraise when the person making a bet is simply committing an error.
• Self-deception happens, especially with inexperienced players, when the player is highly motivated to have a winning hand. The player simply needs to score a pot and therefore plays the hand as if it were a winner. A more dispassionate appraisal would tell him or her to calm down and wait for a better opportunity. Apropos of this feature of human nature, players come in at least three flavors: optimists, realists and pessimists. All three types can be utterly sincere about their bets; that is, they are not bluffing in any sense. The optimists will tend to overplay hands, called "playing too loose." Pessimists will tend to underplay them, or "too tight." Realists win the most money. A good poker player will be able to diagnose play that is too loose or too tight and decide whether it is on purpose, or just a reflection of the personality of the bettor.
• Luck. A final consideration for evaluating the bet of another is whether the person has simply had a stroke of good luck. Inexperienced players can receive killer cards, just like the pros. As the expression goes, "Even a blind dog will sometimes find a bone." When a person makes a bet that communicates a really good hand, the experienced player has to consider whether this might just reflect good fortune. Even a skilled player can lose to a lucky beginner. "Reading" the bettor for the lucky hand is also a skill in evaluating the bets of others.

Sometimes the bet of another person is not useful for playing with that person, but may impart information for evaluating the bet of a third player. For example, if a number of players fold, it might tell a subsequent player that the hands still in play could be strong. With an unusual distribution of cards such that several hands are very weak, it is more likely that the playable hands are stronger than usual. For players still in the game, this creates a bluffing opportunity, a chance to steal the antes. Likewise, it is possible in Hold'em to find situations in which it is very unlikely that two other players both have the hands they are communicating in their bets. The absolute certain situation arises when you can account for three cards, such as aces, and each of two other players are betting as if he had an ace in the hole. The bets of others can be looked upon as a perfectly correct method of "talking" about the cards. Frequently, just by listening to the other bets, one can get a notion, if not a good understanding, of what another player's unrevealed cards probably are.