Pai Gow Poker Strategy

From a strategy point of view, there is little a player can do to control outcomes, as there are only two decisions involved in the play: how much to bet and how to set the hand. As the edge of the banker is a little better than that of a player, minimizing bets as a player and maximizing bets as a banker will improve the edge; unfortunately, the banker does not have control over how big the bets are when he or she becomes banker; they are set by the individual players. The dealer’s bet is the same as the new banker’s last bet when he or she was a player, so that provides a little influence. The “house way” of setting cards has been studied and tweaked by both experts and casinos. It is designed to maximize the power of the banker’s hands. Therefore, it is probably the best strategy for the beginning player as well. Some minor aspects of the “house way” can be selectively improved upon, but the influence is in the hundredths of a percentage point. This leaves little maneuvering room for strategy modification in Pai Gow poker.

Edge

As a general proposition, the player has about a 29% chance of winning both hands against a dealer (banker). The banker has about a 30% chance of winning both hands against a player (because of the rule concerning hands that are “copies”). About 41% of the time, the hand will result in a push. The house edge against a player is about 2.7%, mainly because of the house vig, which the player cannot overcome by skilled play, and because of the rule on copied hands. (The front hand can be expected to “copy” about 2.5% of the time, and the back hand will “copy” around 0.1% of the time.) The house edge over the banker (when it is not the dealer) is almost zero (well, perhaps 0.2%), mainly because of the vig. These figures, of course, will be influenced by the precise method employed to set hands, and may move a tenth of a point or so when a different “house way” than the one listed below is employed.

The House Way

This procedure is fairly standard among casinos, with minor variations perhaps. The version provided here is from the Flamingo Hilton, Las Vegas.

• If no pair: Second and third highest cards in front.
• If a pair: Pair in back, the two highest singletons in front.
• If two pair: Higher pair in back, lower pair in front, unless both pairs are 6 or less, in which case, both go in back, or both pairs are 10 or less plus an ace, in which case both pairs go in back and the ace in front, or one pair is face cards, the other fives or less, with an ace singleton, in which case the pairs go in the back and the ace in the front.
• If three pair: Put the highest pair in front.
• If three of a kind: Put the triple in the back, but if aces, put one ace in front.
• If two triples: Break up the higher triple and put the pair in the front.
• If a straight or a flush: Put in the back hand. If the hand is also two pair, play as two pair if one of the pairs is aces or both pairs are tens or more, or if both under ten, there is also an ace singleton. If a six- or seven- card straight or flush, put the highest possible hand in front, and keep the straight or flush in the back. If there is both a straight and a flush, put the highest hand in back if the front has a king or better. Otherwise, flush goes to the back.
• If a full house, put the pair in front if not twos, and the triple in back. If the pair is twos, put an ace and a face in front if possible. If it is a full house with another pair, put the highest pair in front.
• If four of a kind, keep 2 through 6 together, split 7 through 10 unless and ace and a face can go in front. Split jacks through kings unless there is another pair of tens or more. Split aces unless a pair of sevens or higher can be put in front.
• If a straight flush, play in back, unless two pair is also possible with one of them being aces, or both being tens or higher, or both being tens or lower, with an ace singleton. In that case, play as two pairs. Play as a straight or flush instead of two pair if an ace and a face or a pair can go in front.
• If a royal flush, put it in back unless there is a pair of aces and another pair, or two pairs of ten or more, in which case, play as two pairs. Play as a straight or flush in back if an ace and a face or a pair can be played in front.
• If five aces, split unless a pair of kings can be played in front.

Probability of Hands

Though betting can not be adjusted according to the quality of the hand drawn, the following probabilities attach to the hands in question, from a draw of seven random cards from a deck. The probabilities do not address what should be done with the two cards not used to form the hands in question, and are independent of the methodologies employed in setting the hands.