The Semi-Bluff

What happens when you are fourth in turn in draw poker, and the first player starts the betting? You have a low pair. From your previous observations of this player you are persuaded that she would not have bet unless she had at least a high pair - jacks or better. Your chances are slightly better than 3:1 against improving your hand to two pair or better. The other players call, giving you pot odds of 3:1. Calling the bet says, "I think I can beat your hand." Clearly that is not the case. But you have a chance of getting there. For so long as you do not overpay for this chance, it makes sense to stay in the game. This is called a "semi-bluff" because your bet communicates something that is not "so" (hence it is not exactly a non-bluff), but it could be so (so it's not quite a full bluff, either).

Making semi-bluffs and diagnosing the semi-bluffs of others is an essential element of competent poker play. It should be obvious, but there are no semi-bluffs on the last round. This is because semi-bluffing usually means betting on the come, which is to say, betting in hopes of improvement. On the last round, there's no more improvement to be had. Sometimes, in stud poker, your opponent can see you improve, so that more than just the betting can be used to build the semi-bluff. In draw poker, opponents see no cards, so this is ruled out, and in Hold'em, the board cards are the same for everyone, thus limiting the impact of "the right card." Look at this example from seven-card stud:

Betting the mini-flush in round one caused a raise from the opposition, which you called. This means that there must be a king in the hole. Your hand is now a small pair, probably a loser, but a bet is required. There is a less than a 12% chance of filling the flush, but there is a reasonable possibility of another pair or a trip with three cards to come.

Ask yourself, "If I had checked and the opponent had bet, would I have called?" If the answer is "yes," then it is best to take the initiative and bet. One of a couple of things might happen. The opponent may not have a pair, and fold against the pair on the board, or he may think there's a third 6 in the hole, and fold. If he still wants to play, he will call, but probably not raise (unless, of course, he's bluffing).

If on the next round you get a high card, you can bet more aggressively, and if your opponent did not close with another king or a second pair, he should fold. None of this, of course, could play out this way if you had checked instead of bet on the fifth street card. Here the semi-bluff consisted of betting rather than checking, but it was assisted by how the next cards were turned up on the board.

Suppose that the hand being played, though weak, is in fact the best hand in the game. A player semi-bluffs by being just a little more aggressive than the cards warrant, that is, by betting rather than checking. This represents the hand as better than it probably is. If the others fold, they are folding poorer hands, so "justice is done." But to continue to play, they will have to pay, since you have bet, not checked.

This will weed out some of the weaklings. If, on the other hand, you had checked, surely everyone else would have checked, too (since all the hands are weak), and you would have given everyone else a free chance to draw or be dealt a card to improve their hands. What you want to do is chase them out of the game early, before they have a chance to improve.

Semi-bluffing in early betting rounds can greatly help to mislead the opposition, that is, throw them off the track. For example, if you have a low-ish pair in the hole, but a couple high board cards, semi-bluffing on the board cards can convey strength that is not there. Then, if the third low card of the hidden pair arrives, the opponents will not perceive it as a threat, because the betting has so far centered on the high cards. This may cause them to stay in the game and enrich the pot when they should have fled.

To summarize, the semi-bluff might make an opponent fold the better hand. In that case, it is an unqualified success as a tactic. If the opponent does not fold the better hand, if he or she just checks instead of raising, then the semi-bluff is effective. It has allowed you as a player to stay in the game for less money than it should have cost you, so you can see the next card. By the same token, semi-bluffing has permitted you to chase some of the competing hands out of the game because you prevented them from getting a free card. Finally, semi-bluffing has allowed you to "cover your tracks" in the betting, so that the real strength of your hand goes unperceived by the opposition. This is why the semi-bluff is such an effective tool. In fact, seasoned players do not even think to themselves, "Now it is time to semi-bluff." They just do it because it makes sense in the context of the game.