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Totals and Exotics

Sports Betting at the Sportsbook

In addition to bets on the outcomes of athletic events, the sports book will offer bets on lots of other events related to sports. One of them is built into the posting of the game on the board - the point total. If it seems unlikely that the point total of the game will exceed the number on the board (i.e., the number is so high that it's worth betting in favor), or contrariwise, if the number seems so low that betting against it is a good bet, then it will be possible to place a bet either for or against the total, just as a person would place any other bet.

The terms of a total bet are -110 for either side of the proposition, unless otherwise stated. This is referred to as "the total line." The "otherwise stated" may be subtle, as a practice has become more and more common since the advent of the internet. There may be an indicator on the totals that admits a slight pressure for the number to be a little on the high side or the low side. Some put an "o" or "u" or a plus or minus to indicate that the total is tending for the outcome to be over or under. In such cases, the -110 terms change to -120/EV. The -120 will apply to the side going with the trend.

If the total number "stands up," then those who bet with it will win. If the total exceeds the number specified, those betting against it will win. Check the terms of the total bet carefully at the book. Ties may go to the house. That is to say, the bet is "total or under" (in favor) or "over total" (against). By putting a hook on the total number, the sports book can make it obvious which way a tie on the total would pay.

One might ask why betting totals is interesting or whether it makes any sense at all. Well, part of the handicapping of a game of any sort involves asking whether there will be lots of scoring, very little, or in between. This is a dynamic of the offense v. defense analysis. Two good defenses can hold the scores down, even though it may be hard to call which team will prevail. The total bet may be easier to call in such circumstances than the actual outcome. In the same vein, handicapping may show that certain teams score better under certain circumstances than others, and the total figure is more pessimistic than it should be. For example, imagine a college football game in which two reasonably balanced teams from the upper Midwest are playing on a cold day with a wet field. The question might arise whether the score will be high or low. One factor is dropped passes, which forces a team to go to its ground game in bad weather, thus taking more time to gain yards and score. But equally, one should look at fumbles, particularly the ones that provide good field position to the opponent. Neither team has an experience advantage over the other. Research may show that these teams actually do fairly well in the mud, can gain ground efficiently on the ground, do not fumble, and even can keep the forward pass alive. Thus, the normal practice of lowering the total points for a muddy field is not as applicable to them. If the book appears not to have thought through this angle, there might be a betting edge on total points.

Once having entered the waters of non-straight bets, the options become myriad. It is still possible to stay within one's area of expertise. For example, a sports book may offer a proposition on dropped passes in a game, or which team scores first, or the number of field goals. Like the straight bets, appraising these propositions with the aid of proper handicapping can lead the player to find some value and make a bet. Some experienced players like this kind of exotic because they are sometimes prepared by the local sports book as a promotional approach to bringing people into the book. They may not be handicapped with as much care or by the high-priced team of experts back in Dover or wherever. Nevertheless, they require the attention of the handicapper, or else the bets are accomplishing their main purpose, which is to attract "fan money" (emotional betting) into the book - only this time, you are the fan.

Another category of exotics really mixes up the situation by comparing results across games and even sports. There may be a proposition on whether Kobe Bryant will miss more foul shots (plus 20) than Philip Rivers (QB Chargers) will complete passes on Sunday. Now Phil Rivers may complete an average of 23 passes in a game, and Kobe may miss an average of three foul shots in a game, but this proposition is extremely hard to handicap. It really involves a minuscule analysis of two different games in two different sports. Possibly a bettor will know enough about the Lakers and the Chargers and their opponents to form an intelligent judgment. But if you are not that person, this may be a sucker bet. (This does not mean that you can't bet the prop; just do not pretend you are being rational about it.)

The exception to this generality is that these really off-beat propositions sometimes are put together with less care and attention that the betting public is willing to devote to them. If it happens that the two disparate events are really not comparable, the edge on the prop might turn out to be very high, without even having to know much about one or another of the events in question. It is not unheard of, for example, to have a proposition that posts a total number of wins in a tournament that exceeds the number of games! There is a good, clear reason to go plunge some money on the underside of that prop.

On the whole, the serious player should stick to straight bets on sports and contests where he or she has a potential handicapping advantage over the house, leaving the most exotic exotics to the "fans."