When Not to Bluff

Sometimes, when you are tempted to bluff, your "inner voice" should say "No" if your hand is just too implausible for what you want to represent. The adage, "Truth is stranger than fiction," is a curse for fiction writers. Fiction, to be believable, must stay much closer to reality than even reality itself. Reality, on the other hand, can be as weird as it wants to be. Likewise, a bluffer can not expect to be believed when a hand just looks like a messy runt.

Even though it is possible to receive two aces in the hole in a seven-card stud game, no one should try to bluff such a thing. The odds of receiving two aces in a seven-card stud deal are well over 200:1 against (0.45%), so "pretending" it happened to you will just not fly. If one of your board cards is a fat king, then representing that maybe one of the hole cards is also a king would be a plausible bluff. There is at least some evidence and a chance that it is so, even though it is not.

A related situation occurs when the hand represented is nearly impossible to achieve. In a game of seven-card stud, your board cards could show a small straight with just one gap. If one or two of the four cards that could fill the gap are visible in the board cards of other players, don't try to sell the idea that you have a straight. An even worse situation might ensue if one of the other players did have a pair of the gap card in the hole, and therefore knew it was a bluff. Good players will aggressively try to take known bluffers to the cleaners. Similar situations occur when someone represents a flush with several matching suits among the other board cards. In short, do not bluff if the cards seem to contradict it.

Other "non-bluffing" situations deal with the dynamics of a game. Chronic loose players may find themselves in bluffing situations more often that tight players just because they find themselves playing hands more often that they should have thrown away. Therefore, if you are playing loose, err on the side of not bluffing when possible, just because there will be so many other situations in which a bluff will be necessary.

As bankrolls decrease, players may get desperate to win pots in order to replenish their stock of chips. This engenders one of two reactions: either they play very "tight" so as to conserve the resources they still have, or they play much more loosely, playing more hands than they should and representing hands as stronger than they are. Experienced players will recognize this phenomenon and take advantage of it. As a result, if the bankroll shrinks, of the two strategies, it is probably better to play more tightly, hanging in there for a chance when you can represent the truth in your betting. No one buys in to the pathetic bluffs of a desperado.

Finally, be aware that each deal or draw in poker is independent of the other, in the sense that there are no systematic "streaks" of good or bad luck. Some players, euphoric after winning a couple of pots in a row on relatively good hands, will be tempted to try to bluff their way into stealing a third pot, on some theory that the other players will think it's a streak. Good players know this. They will call the bluff.